This report introduces Critical Truth’s research orientation process in the context of the beauty consumer category. This process aims to illustrate the culture of a consumer category with minimum bias.
If you have any questions about any aspect of this report, please contact Mark (Razz) at mark.razzell@criticaltruth.com.au. We love to talk about our work and look forward to your questions. We also welcome any questions you may have about your own categories of interest.
Please note that this report only demonstrates a subset of our tools, techniques, and resources.
Past, present, and emerging trends
In order to listen to consumers directly we reviewed public online discussions from beauty consumers from January 2018 to March 2023. In total we filtered our sources down to 66,289 threads of discussion consisting of 500,623 individual comments.
These discussions were categorised into a series of major theme models using Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods. These models were evaluated and then the text was further classified into sub-themes. For each major and sub-theme, we identified the key terms and examine their rate of growth and change over time.
For key terms that were most important or relevant, we investigated what other terms most commonly occurred when they were mentioned.
To review and understand the broader context of these trends we reviewed Share Of Search results to check localised behaviours and determine whether conversations have translated to actions. We also review the underlying source material to better understand trends that are ambiguous.
Main Themes
In the context of beauty, we found six clear major themes.
There are numerous sub-themes within each of these major themes, which is what we will focus on here.
Overall summary (network)
Hover over nodes to see the summary for each component. (Note: this may not display correctly on mobile devices.)
Our Big Bets, based on this analysis
- Rejection of beauty standards will continue to increase, as the end goal of positive mental health being the outcome of beauty routines continues to proliferate
- ‘Natural’ and ‘organic’ skincare will wane, owing to rise of active ingredients and desire for scent in the remaining areas where natural/organic are relevant (washing products)
- Scent is becoming increasingly important and looks likely to continue to proliferate. It is important for body wash, lotions, cream, and perfume. The trend is towards sweet gourmand scents. Of all our bets, this is the biggest with some of the widest reaching implications. Olfaction is a very important sense
- Lip flips will grow in popularity, either replacing or being used in conjunction with lip fillers
- Hairstyles are going to go through a major evolution. Curtain bangs are just the beginning
- There will be changes in technology for hair care as styles evolve, both in hardware and products. New hairdryer technology, heat protectants, etc.
- Price sensitivity will affect purchase behaviours, with an increase in searching for deals and samples
- Laser hair removal will continue to dominate, but we will see a shift towards people doing this at home
- Foundation will decline, as people opt for tinted moisturiser, BB creams, and other alternatives
- The goal of gym work will increasingly become about strength training with fat loss as an outcome, as opposed to the objective
- A subtle shift of drinking ‘enough’ water, rather than ‘plenty’, will become prevailing. I.e. no need to be over-hydrated
- Birth control and its effects on skincare will come in to the conversation more prominently. It effects skincare, which effects mental health
- There may be a reevaluation of colour palettes, as skin undertone replaces skin tone as the primary theory of palette choice
- Lash extensions will decline with the proliferation of lash lifts and lash serum. Likely to also affect mascara and curling
- The proliferation of lash lifts could have knock on effects. Lash lifts are linked to orbital fat loss and, for some people, irritated eyes
- The oils people use in their hair is about to undergo a big change. We have already detected rosemary oil, and can see peppermint and pumpkin coming in. This is at the expense of Argan and Castor
- Mineral sunscreen, with innovation to reduce the white film, could become more widespread
- Tanning drops look likely to increase in prominence
- Natural or aluminum deodorant could potentially proliferate, as people look for ways to keep things out of their skin. This could be a good category growth opportunity
Beauty Industry (sub themes)
Within discussion about the beauty industry as a whole, it tends to go one of six ways.
Summary
Although general discussion about societal standards is declining within the context of the industry, there is still a clear trend towards discussion and rejection of the ‘beauty standard’. This has more than doubled in prominence within 5 years. Mental health as an explicit consideration of beauty routines and goals is also increasing - this accompanies healthy eating and getting enough sleep. These things are seen as central to a good beauty regime.
Discussion about skincare (in context of the industry/culture) has seen the most recent jump and, based on the evidence we have, is related to discussions of using soap, micella water, and active ingredients. Discussions around oils, butters etc, in the context of the industry, has declined. The acceptance of simple washing techniques and scientific ingredients is mostly the norm right now.
There is an increase in conversations about hair drying. This is related to findings in other topics that people are exploring new hair styles - particularly the curtain bangs - which require volume.
Further, laser hair removal is big right now. There is some evidence to suggest it’s being explored in the context of facial hair removal (peach fuzz).
There is evidence that many retailers who orient themselves with price as a factor are doing well. I.E. cost of living pressures are showing.
Trends within Beauty Industry threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within societal standards.
We will explore beauty standards, looking in the mirror, TikTok, self esteem, and social media.
This important and rising theme is about unrealistic standards and their rejection. People engage in the beauty category to make them feel good and confident. The impact of social media is undeniable, and there is some acknowledgement that things are changing. (**can we clarify what things refers to here?)
What people see when they look in the mirror and how that makes them feel. This is a big theme, but not rising.
TikTok, for understandable reasons, has being steadily increasing as a theme. There is much discussion about filters, people who look flawless (as a result of filters), and body positivity. There is also evidence of people using it to discover products.
Self-esteem is an important theme, but not rising. It’s about having low self-esteem and/or boosting it. They are discussing using make up to resolve this; to feel confident, to look and feel good, feel beautiful, etc.
Social media is a large and increasing theme. The main context of discussion is around influencers and how it doesn’t reflect real life, but still has an effect on people. There is talk of people deleting Instagram, spending less time on social to negate the effects of being exposed to unrealistic standards, etc.
Cross referencing themes of interest within hair, nails, and teeth.
We will explore blow dry, laser hair removal, damage hair, dye hair, wash hair.
An important and rising topic, but fairly clear cut. People are increasingly discussing the intricacies of blow drying, and what difference it can make to their hair.
Very much on the rise, but fairly easy to explain - it’s just the preferred method for hair removal right now. There is a possibility that it is being explored in the context of facial hair removal.
This is an intricate and important subject. The importance of choice around shampoo and conditioner is apparent, and the major causes of damage people are concerned about are colouring and heat. The use of protectants - hair masks (particularly Olaplex) and other treatments is prevalent.
With the increase of people colouring and experimenting with different heat tools to style hair, this could be a good category to explore ownership of.
This is a strongly increasing theme. It subdued just before Covid, but has picked up again. Most of the advice is around how to do it yourself with box dying. Popular colours are red and blonde, and often people are exploring after noticing greys. It’s all about trying something different.
Obviously a big theme of discussion, and mostly centred around frequency. Changes to the routine make a difference, particularly in the context of products used. Dry shampoo is also important as an alternative to stave off the need to properly wash.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Retailers and brands.
We will explore TJ Maxx, full size, expiration date, thrift store, product worth, price range, get deal, online store, customer service, and cruelty free.
TJ Maxx is a US off price retailer, and they are excelling in popularity right now. This is most likely in response to the economic downturn, and their economic reports follow the same trend.
It’s all about getting high end products at better prices. In the beauty category, mostly for hair and skincare, but it extends to all makeup products.
A beauty retailer would do well to take a look at their strategy.
Full size products, particularly in the context of sampling. Popularity of this as a discussion point has declined but when it was big, it was huge.
There’s been a recent strong uptick on conversation around this, again likely in response to economic conditions. But people are also questioning if low price products (e.g. from TJ Maxx) are cheap because they’re near expiry. It’s a nagging concern of people who are getting a good deal.
People want products that are going to last even if they’re getting a deal, is the long and short of it.
This extends to clothes, but also for things like nail polish and lip gloss. It picks up particularly around black Friday and Christmas time, when people are expecting others to get rid of gifts in thrift stores.
This is an important and steady trend.
Is it worth the money? Generally, people think that yes, it is. A good brand to exemplify this is Charlotte Tilbury.
But it has to deliver. You can’t just mark up for the hell of it.
Important component but not rising.
This is people discussing price elasticity in the context of their means. Subsequently, being a university student comes up a lot.
Catering to people who want good quality but need to assess products within a price range could be a useful strategy for a company to consider.
This has been steadily increasing as a point of conversation.
This is people looking for or talking about getting deals on high end products.
It is increasing. Again, likely in response to economic conditions.
This important theme is decreasing.
People generally discuss online shopping in the context of making decisions, and skin/haircare is extremely important. Free shipping is the decider for a lot of people.
Online shopping has simply become normalised with market maturity.
This is a big theme but decreasing in prominence.
Sephora and beauty bay are the most commonly cited brands, and they often discuss these in the context of good customer service. It will affect their product purchase decisions, and they want to know there is a good refund policy.
This theme has declined massively since early 2020.
It is particularly prevalent in the context of skincare, and is very much associated with vegan.
Generally, there are questions around ‘does it work’. The shift in skincare has been towards active ingredients, which may explain the decline of this theme.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Makeup.
We will explore Charlotte Tilbury, lip liner, lip tint, cream blush, and skin tint.
Charlotte Tilbury is very important and increasingly so, at the expense of Urban Decay mostly.
Most importantly, there is the flawless filter primer which operates with skin tone in mind, Pillow Talk (lipstick), and their flawless setting spray.
Natasha Denona and Tom Ford reveal themselves as ones to watch.
This theme is rising. Particularly in the context of brown, dark, and shaded lip liners. Dior and Contour dominate here.
Lip tinting is increasing, and that’s all there really is to it.
Some indication that people like the natural look.
Blush, across all areas of the face, is important at the moment.
This theme is increasing also. BB cream blush features heavily, and it has important crossovers with lip balm.
Cloud paint blush is a popular product.
Important but not rising. Was huge just before Covid.
In particular, people like tinted concealer, but it extends to all base layer components. Ilia serum is a popular product.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Skincare.
We will explore bar soap, micellar water, use acid, tea tree, and coconut oil.
This theme has been growing steadily but has exploded recently. In the context of face washing, the current common recommendation is to use bar soap, particularly if you have sensitive skin. Dove sensitive soap is the most popular.
Micella water is a strong, important theme that has had steady but slight increase. The advice is to generally use it to remove makeup.
Recommendations to use acid have been strong and increasing for some time. These are ‘active ingredients’, and have started to dominate the skincare routines. “Make sure you use ‘x’ acid” is the common response.
The recommendation to use tea tree oil has been declining for some time. Pre-active ingredient recommendations, it was one of the largest recommendations. It is also relevant in the context of hair washing, not just skincare.
Coconut oil was once large, but has dramatically declined in relevance as active ingredients have taken hold. It tends to get mentioned more in the context of body wash (compared to tea tree which is hair), and it also gets lumped in with sugar and other oils.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Skincare.
We will explore mental health, eat healthy, get sleep, weight loss, lose weight, cystic acne, birth control, and take collagen.
This is an important and increasing theme. It is often discussed in relation to physical health. I.E. good physical health promotes good mental health, and one should take care of both. Self care is important, and the impact of skin care on mental health is well noted. Bad skin can have a profound effect on mental health, as can good skin.
Drink lots of water, eat healthy foods, and make sure to exercise. This is an important and consistent theme, particularly in the context of skin care.
An important and ever present piece of advice; get enough good quality sleep and drink plenty of water. It is the foundation of a good skincare routine.
An important and ever present theme of advice, but with key differences. There are those looking for help with weight loss, and those looking for help with managing their skin after weight loss. There are also problems related to hormonal imbalances. A common piece of advice for weight loss - if you’re hungry, drink water.
One of the largest themes, that doesn’t decline. This is people wanting to lose weight, mostly, or discussing how to go about it. Water is a key piece of the puzzle, but we can also see other clues of adding muscle mass as a goal instead of just focusing on losing weight. It’s all about diet and exercise in most conversations.
An important topic that has rebounded in prominence recently. It is the plague of many people who are focused on skincare. Either fixing it or dealing with the after effects of deep scars. Most discussions are in acknowledgment that it is hormonal in nature, and the recommendation is commonly to consult a dermatologist. People talk about the things they did that made a difference.
This theme has increased in prominence recently, much the same as cystic acne. Indeed, the conversation is typically in the context of how the hormonal effects of birth control has given them acne.
This was a large theme, but has declined significantly. It is typically discussed in the context of what supplements did for hair, nails, and skin. Why it has fallen out of favour is not clear from here, but potential side effects may have made people wary.
Perceived problems (sub-themes)
We have grouped discussions about beauty problems into sixteen sub-themes.
Summary
This is a complex topic, where the questions or points raised branch out in to many different areas.
The biggest rise is in societal expectations. Given the context is that people are asking for advice to ‘fix’ something, there is an increase in people replying ‘why should you?’.
We can also see a recent increase in questions around skin problems, and the shape of something of interest (hair, eyes, lips). The major shifts here are in the context of using lip fillers and lip flips to alter the shape of lips to a more ‘natural’ look, and also increased discussion about face shape in reference to hair styles. The predominant hair style in question is curtain bangs.
Another area that has recently risen is around the discussion of birth control and pregnancy effects. This is an interesting area to consider, especially in the context of skincare, where hormones play an important role.
Dissolvable lip fillers are the rage right now, as is laser hair removal. We also see a rise in reference to Glycolic acid as an active ingredient for acne control.
Management of dark circles around the eyes is slightly decreasing in prominence, but within it there as an increasing thematic reference to skin undertone.
Trends within perceived problems threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within societal standards.
We will explore beauty standard, think look, make feel, look beautiful, and look good.
This theme appeared within perceived problems in 2019 and, while small, has been increasing slowly since. When people talk about beauty standards in the context of perceived problems, they are generally referring to self-acceptance and that you probably don’t need to get plastic surgery to make you feel beautiful. In short, stop comparing yourself to social media - you don’t have a problem.
This one intrigued us, so we dug in. It’s large, important, and showing signs of increasing. It effectively refers to judgement. Generally, people are saying ‘it/you look(s) great’ or ‘could look better’, ‘looks weird’, etc.
It’s effectively signalling the aesthetic judgement that’s inherent to the category. Given these threads are about perceived problems, people are commenting on those problems. Either with words of encouragement, or words of dissuasion for some alternative.
Hugely important, but not rising. How these problems or solutions make people feel. Ultimately, doing something to resolve the problem will make them feel better, good, or confident. The doing something results in looking good, which leads to those feelings.
Slight increase in this sub-theme. This is people commenting on another person’s appearance, likely through photos. Think you look beautiful, this girl looks beautiful, etc. Other times they focus on finding makeup or other tools (e.g. cameras) that will make them look beautiful.
An important theme with steady prevalence. Ultimately, if you look good you feel good. Otherwise it’s people saying that the makeup of the original poster looks good.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Botox, filler, and procedures.
We will explore lip filler, get dissolve, plastic surgery, and go dermatologist.
An important and heavily increasing theme. This is people discussing lip fillers, particularly their upcoming or first time procedure. People are giving advice around side effects, products to use, and making sure you have a good plastic surgeon.
A big and increasing area of discussion - the concept of dissolving lip fillers, often discussed in the context of migration. They are aiming for a natural look.
This is a relatively important and increasing topic. It comes in two forms - people talking about getting plastic surgery, or doing something instead of getting plastic surgery. Most notably, fillers, botox, or other general cosmetic procedures.
This is a regular and stable theme. Many of the perceived problems are with scarring from acne, and are seeking possible solutions from fillers and injectables. A common subject from people responding (within this sub-theme) is to seek the advice of a dermatologist before going that route.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Skin Problems.
We will explore pimple patch, acne prone, dark spot, and get rid.
This peaked in 2021. To some extent it is a common recommendation of how to deal with pimples and white heads. Don’t pick it, you’ll make it worse. Use a pimple patch. That is the crux of the sub-theme.
People discussing having dry, sensitive, oily, acne prone skin. It has increased slightly, but is a fairly clear-cut sub-theme. Skin imbalances are the cause of most acne issues, but not necessarily the route (**what does route mean here?). These imbalances can be caused by myriad reasons; hormones, diet, etc.
Hyperpigmentation, particularly caused by acne scars. People are broadly asking for and giving advice on how to deal with these spots. A common location is at the corner of the mouth. The use of serums and sunscreen are most commonly cited. This theme is slightly increasing.
The most important theme of discussions about dealing with skin problems. Stable and very important. The most common things people are looking to ‘get rid’ of are dark circles around the eyes, dark spots (hyperpigmentation), acne scars, black heads, and pimples.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Hair Removal.
We will explore hair removal, body hair, peach fuzz, ingrown hair, grow darker.
The biggest sub-theme, and slightly rising. Most likely to reference laser hair removal as the solution. Dealing with ingrown hairs, upper lip hair, body hair, and the bikini area are the most common subjects.
A large theme that came to prominence in 2020, and has stayed relatively strong since. This is mostly people talking about removing dark and/or thick hair on the body.
This increasingly prevalent topic is people discussing how to get rid of fine facial hair - known as peach fuzz. Typically, the solution is to shave. But there is concern it will grow back thicker (a common misconception).
Note that laser hair removal is very rarely discussed as a solution for this.
This is a very large stable theme. The general context is around how to prevent or how to remove in grown hairs. The most common area of complaint is the bikini line, which is often shaved.
This sub-theme has recently increased, likely in correlation with the growth of peach fuzz shaving. It is people assuring the reader that the ‘shaved hair grows back thicker’ idea is entirely a myth. If you deal with peach fuzz through shaving (assuming you have a good razor), this won’t happen. You’ll get smoother application of makeup as a result.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Shape (eyes, lips, face).
We will explore lip flip, make eye, curtain bang, and lash serum.
Lip flips are relatively new things that people are doing instead of filler. They are generally considered to look more natural. In the context of shape, the main consideration is that lip flips will define the cupids bow (the top of the lip) and provide desired shape, whereas filler adds volume and plump.
A stable and important theme. This represents conversations about how to change the look of your eyes. I.E. make your eyes look bigger, smaller, make them pop, etc. Typically in the context of eyeliner use.
Curtain bangs are a new and important hair style, but the consideration is whether you have the right shaped face for it. It can make your face look smaller.
Lash serum is a relatively new concept and, in the context of shape, it is discussed in the context of its potential for orbital fat loss.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Oils.
We will explore castor oil, face wash, cold water, and warm water.
Castor oil has shown recent growth. It is typically discussed in the context of hair growth and its use for dry skin, particularly on the scalp.
Given that the discussion context is about people having problems with oils, here people are simply advising on how to wash their face to manege oils.
Face wash with cold water, rinse hair with cold.
Warm water is more likely to be used in the context of washing hair, foot care, and treating dry skin when washing the face.
Cross referencing themes of interest within concealer and foundation.
We will explore wear foundation, tinted moisturizer, concealer use.
This is an important theme and one that is increasing. Most importantly, people are increasingly saying to ‘stop’ wearing foundation.
Increasingly people are discussing using tinted moisturizer instead of foundation. Skin tone is an important consideration when deciding which type of tint to use. People also discuss use in combination with BB cream (‘blemish balm’ or ‘beauty balm’).
An increasingly important sub-theme, this refers to people using concealer to cover dark circles around the eyes. They are discussing using full coverage in place of foundation. Important brands are noted - Wayne Goss, Shape Tape, and Tarte.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Acids.
We will explore glycolic acid, inkey list, cleanser moisturizer, acid toner, chemical exfolient, and vitamin serum.
Very important and increasingly so. The main product used is The Ordinary’s toner.
This is the new brand on the block. They are gaining significant traction.
An increasingly important subject - the importance of a good, gentle, active ingredient cleanser. In particular, those with salicylic acid.
In the past this was very important theme, it has since been replaced by people referencing specific active ingredients, rather than using the catch all term.
Vitamin serum was also once popular, but has declined in prominence as people focus more on specific actives and products. It is most focused on its use as for eye cream.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Lip balm (chapped lips).
We will explore healing ointment, make lip, lip product, and lip therapy.
An increasingly important theme, this is people recommending Cerave or Aquaphore healing ointments as a solution for dry lips. Also referenced in conjunction with lip masks.
An increasingly important theme, this is people talking about products or treatments that either make your lips look a good thing or a bad thing. Good things are making your lips look plump, hydrating them, or giving them colour. Bad are making your lips peel. Good things are more commonly referenced. Kip balm is the main product, but also scrubs and masks.
This is increasing - people recommending specific brands/products for problems. Laneige lip mask, Burts Bees, tinted lip balms, Fresh sugar lip balm, etc. As lips have become a key focus in beauty, so has the proliferation of brands/products that deliver to needs.
This is increasing - people exlicitly recommending vaseline lip therapy products to help with dry or chapped lips. There are other products present, but this is the main one.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Weight management.
We will explore gua sha, bone structure, fat face, double chin(g), grind tooth, build muscle, roof mouth, lose fat, and facial exercise.
This has exploded on to the scene since 2019. Gua Sha stone is a chinese tool that scrapes the skin to increase blood flow. It is used in the context of reducing puffiness, lymphatic drainahe, and generally used to help reduce fat in the face and shape it to a desired outcome.
A mildly important and semi increasing theme - the context of this is that ‘you can’t change your bone structure’. So you should operate with weight management that targets that factor that in.
Another common recommendation that accompanies this is to sleep on your back - side sleeping will increase puffiness and facial water retention.
The g added to ‘double chin’ is an artefect of some internal intricacies of our models.
This is a large, consistent theme within the topic, and failry self-explanatory. People have gained or want to get rid of their double chin.
Teeth grinding, or Bruxism, can change the shape of your face. Here, people who suffer from this affliction are looking for help with the additional ‘weight’ it adds to the face. It is also sometimes discussed as a way to add muscle on the face.
This is people discussing adding working on adding muscle as the goal, rather than losing weight. It obviously helps with tone and, subsequently, shape.
This was a common exercise suggested for reducing a double chin, but its popularity has declined, being replaced by general exercise advice and the Gua Sha.
A common theme, but not increasing. This theme is mostly focused on losing fat in the face. The general advice is that losing weight overall will result in facial fat loss.
The popularity of this theme has declined. People use to commonly suggest various exercises as ways to reduce facial fat, but this has declined in favour of overall exercise. The idea of ‘spot reduction’ of fat is being rejected.
Cross referencing themes of interest within food and water.
We will explore eat healthy, enough water, sleep drink, and cut dairy.
An important and increasing theme is the recommendation to exercise, eat healthy, and drink water.
This is important and interesting because it is starting to replace ‘drink lots of water’. The shift in language from ‘lots’ to ‘enough’ suggests a cultural shift in attitudes to water intake.
Getting enough sleep is just as important as food and water intake. This isn’t rising sharply, but is ever present.
This was a large theme in 2018 but has declined. Dairy was seen by many as problematic in a skin care routine. People often suggested switching to plant based alternatives, and suggest that they saw improvements within a week or two.
Cross referencing themes of interest within birth control and pregnancy effects
We will explore side effect, birth control, mental health, and get check.
An important and slightly rising theme, people discussing the side effects of birth control. Mostly, it’s effect on acne.
Important and rising, this is directly related to side effects. Mostly, it’s acne and hair loss.
This is a small but important theme, slight rise in prevalence but not notably so. This is people talking about how the birth control pill has given them bad skin and its effecting their mental health, or that it’s worsened an existing mental health issue.
This was important and has decreased in prevalence but, ultimately, it’s people suggesting that they see their doctor about their hormone imbalances resulting from birth control, that have eventuated in undesirable outcomes. Hair loss, dark circles, etc.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Dark circles (eyes)
We will explore cool tone, blue purple, and cool undertone.
Increasingly important - people referencing their skin tone when exploring how to manage dark circles under the eyes.
Blue purple is a small but increasing theme. It references the management of blue or purple rings/circles under the eye. Subsequently, the recommendation is that they should use yellow or orange to conceal.
This is an increasingly important theme. Skin undertone is a relatively new concept, and it is increasingly being referenced when considering how to deal with dark rings under the eyes.
Hair, lashes, eyebrows (sub-themes)
Within threads that pose the question or point of discussion about hair, lashes, or eyebrows, it tends to go one of seven ways. This is not an overly complex topic, but it is interesting.
Summary
This area is relatively consistent, excepting one area that is undergoing significant change - hair styles. It is being driven by love of curtain bangs. It is causing branches out in to other, related areas. E.g. the Wolf Cut. Because of the intricacies required for this style, people are asking how to do it with fine hair. I.e. how to give their fine hair volume. As we have and will see in other areas, this has implications for things like drying techniques. It also means that people are looking for new stylists, as they explore new hair styles.
In the context of eye lashes, there is currently an increased focus on lash serums and lash lifts. Subsequently, the relevance of traditional mascara is declining. Lash tinting is an area that shows promise for growth. Lash serum does have the interesting side effect of causing orbital fat loss for some people, which doesn’t seem to be causing concern, but is definitely notable.
In the world of cleaning hair, clarifying shampoos are taking off in a big way. This is related to the increase use of product to add volume - e.g. dry shampoo. Rosemary oil is the growing in a big way also. Slightly less so, but so too are pumpkin oil and peppermint oil. This is at the expense of olive oil, coconut oil, argan oil, and especially castor oil.
Because people are looking for new styles with volume, they are increasingly discussing new methods for drying. Given the importance of heat, they are increasing referencing heat protectant and round brushes. This can cause tangles, so they are also increasingly discussing wet brushing and wide tooth combs.
References to explicit dying of the hair have been declining, and instead people are playing with their natural colours - mostly dark brown. Blonde highlights are the exception here, which have very recently enjoyed a big jump in popularity.
Trends within Hair, Lashes, and eyebrows threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within aesthetics and industry
We will explore find new, find stylist, go school, hear good, and great tip.
Finding something ‘new’ has been creeping up and, generally, this is about finding a new stylists or hair style.
Finding a new stylist is a hot theme, but is relatively straightforward.
This theme has recently crept up, and it’s people looking to go to beauty school or cosmetology school. It is intertwined with self-teaching; hence many recommendations of watching videos. Subsequently there are two components; I want to go to school, or you don’t need to go to school.
“Hear good things’ about X. This is an important part of the conversations and recommendations that people say to one another, but it isn’t rising. It’s an ever present theme.
“Great tip, thank you”, and often people will provide a ‘great tip’, then wish good luck. Typically this is in the context of managing/working with fine hair, wavy hair, or just dealing with general queries. These ‘tips’ are somewhat unique to haircare - we don’t see this elsewhere within beauty.
Cross referencing themes of interest within eye lashes.
We will explore lash serum, lash lift, and curl lash.
This is a popular and increasing theme, with a lot of complexity. The biggest product discussed is Grandelash MD serum, but The Ordinary features regularly also. “Natural” lash serums are a big part of the discussion, and castor oil as a serum is also a very big and regular theme.
Effectively, serum and its use is replacing extensions.
Another increasingly popular theme is lash lifts, which is also closely related to lash tinting.
Lash lifts are huge right now.
Curling is important and has shown signs of growth, but has been usurped by ‘lift’. A lift curls the lashes by its nature, and removes the need for mascara. Regardless, quite often people talk about curling and mascara as part of the same process.
Cross referencing themes of interest within hair styles.
We will explore curtain bang, fine hair, thick brows, and face shape.
Curtain bangs are huge right now, and are being discussed within a variety of concepts. There is a lot of conversation about how to make them work with fine hair, but the style also branches out in discussions of other bang types, e.g. a wolf cut. The face that bangs frame come up a lot.
This is the biggest trend in hair right now.
Fine hair discussions have been creeping up, and the main context is how to add volume. and texture. One of the most common recommendations is to use dry shampoo.
As people evaluate their hair choices - most notably bangs - what to do with thick eyebrows is increasingly coming up. People either want them, or want to talk about how to manage them.
The shape of ones face has been increasing in prominence recently, in line with discussions about curtain bangs. While people have always asked about hair style choices for certain in-vogue hair styles, this recent trend has exacerbated the theme.
Cross referencing themes of interest within hair loss and hormones.
We will explore fat loss, and hair loss.
This theme is important and rising. Interestingly, it is specifically related to the rising use of eyelash serum, which can cause orbital fat loss as a side effect. People are recommending to use oils etc. as ways of managing this.
This is the major theme within the topic, and it’s people discussing things that can cause hair loss or how to resolve it. The most common suggestion is to get blood work to check for a vitamin deficiency.
Cross referencing themes of interest within shampoo and conditioning.
We will explore use shampoo, clarifying shampoo, rosemary oil, hair oil, dry shampoo, argan oil, purple shampoo, and castor oil.
A huge theme, and increasingly falling back in to favor at the expense of using oils and going shampoo free. Often used in conjunction with conditioner, but shampoo is the real winner.
The reason for the rise behind ‘use shampoo’. Increasingly people are recommending to use clarifying shampoo in their routine to remove product buildup. It is important to do this once a week or month - not as regular as normal shampoo.
Rosemary oil - and other essential oils, are increasingly being recommended, particularly to promote hair growth. It is often mentioned in conjunction with pumpkin oil and peppermint oil. These are being promoted instead of olive oil, argan oil, and castor oil.
An increasingly discussed theme by virtue of people trying out different essential oils (rosemary, pumpkin, peppermint). But it is also discussed in reference of management of oily hair. The importance of oily routes is also important.
A recently increasingly referenced theme. The two components it is considered in is with either adding volume or managing oils. A common recommendation is to use baby powder instead of dry shampoo.
A once common theme, this has slightly fallen out of favour. It is frequently discussed alongside coconut oil, and in the context of using a hair mask.
A once popular theme, this has declined dramatically in prevalence. Purple shampoo is the main recommendation for people who have bleached/dyed blonde hair. Perhaps its use is common knowledge or perhaps blonde dye is falling out of favour but, regardless, its presence is diminishing.
Still an important theme, its prominence has declined. it is considered a vital part of promoting hair growth and scalp health. Jamaican black castor oil, specifically, is the product recommended.
Cross referencing themes of interest within drying and related methods.
We will explore heat protectant, round brush, wet brush, and wide comb.
An increasingly important theme, this is people making the recommendation to use heat protectant when blow drying hair. Given that in other topics, we have seen conversation about blow drying (new products/methods) increase, this makes sense. As blow drying with news products increases, so to does the recommendation to use heat protectant.
This semi-important theme has been creeping up in prevalence. The recommendation is to use round brush when blow drying as it gives volume.
This theme has crept up recently as a way to manage tangles.
This theme has also been creeping up and is in reference to wide tooth combs. Generally, this is a recommendation for dealing with curly, tangled, and/or thick hair.
Cross referencing themes of interest within colours.
We will explore dark hair, dark brown, blonde highlight, and red hair.
An important and increasing theme, this is mostly people saying they either want to ‘go dark’ or are looking to lighten dark hair. There is a lot of consideration for those with light skin.
Also important and increasing, this is mostly people with natural dark brown hair looking to dye it. Most commonly to blonde.
This is not a prominent theme historically, but it has recently exploded. It’s self-explanatory - people looking for blonde highlights. Particularly those with dark brown hair.
There is an ever present discussion for those with natural red hair, but recently there has been a large increase in people discussing going red through dye.
Skincare (sub-themes)
Within threads that pose the question or point of discussion about skincare, it tends to go one of thirteen ways. This is not a complex topic.
Summary
The biggest consistent trend within skincare is smell/scent. This theme has grown from almost nothing to almost 10% of all conversations in skincare now over 5 years. The main growth is coming from vanilla type scents. We are seeing the same trend in perfumes - it is what is known as ‘sweet gourmand’. Scents that are good enough to eat.
There is a big rise in people discussing their ‘skin barrier’ - i.e. looking after it or repairing it to stop things getting ‘in’. This is a relatively new trend. Coupled with this, in the context of suncare, people are increasingly exploring mineral based (tinted) sunscreens, and aluminum free deodorant.
Discussions about skin problems, foundation, tanning, acne creams/moisturisers are overall declining. We believe that this is because people have settled in to their fairly efficacious (active ingredients) routine, so there is no need to discuss as much anymore.
Trends within Skincare threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within products and culture.
We will explore self care, and many people.
This is one of the subthemes that has shown recent growth, and is not just related to general discussion.
It involves people discussing their skin care routine in the context of why they do certain things; self care. The most common components are face masks, deodorant, and moisturising.
This is an important theme that’s shown moderate rise recently.
It refers to anecdotal support for a hypothesis (I know many people who do X), or support for a cultural observation (I see many people do x).
It’s demonstrative of the importance of anecdotal and observed support within the category.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Washing and cleansing.
We will explore face neck, wash hand, brush tooth, whole body, and hot water.
This is a semi-important and consistent sub-theme with moderate growth. This is people talking about moisturising and cleansing their consistently visible components as part of a regular routine; moisturising face, neck, chest, and hands.
Another semi important but consistent theme. This is people talking about the importance of washing hands and using hand cream, or how they wash their face with their hands.
Brushing teeth is a sub-theme that’s risen in popularity and prominence, especially recently. It’s obviously a regular part of the nightly/morning routine; embroiled with skincare. People often talk about how they brush their teeth while in the shower.
An small sub-theme, but gaining in prominence very steadily. We have seen how important the visible components of skin are, but people are increasingly saying ‘make sure you do the whole body’, particularly in the context of washing, tanning, and moisturising. This includes the feet!
This theme has been steadily rising, in line with other basic recommendations like using soap. However, it is generally discussed in the context of causing dry skin. But it is an important component of some techniques - e.g. the beauty blender.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Skin Problems.
We will explore skin barrier, fine line, skin tone, and sensitive prone.
The skin barrier is a relatively new but increasingly important sub-theme. It involves discussion about repairing and helping the outer most layer of your skin to keep it healthy. Don’t use products that damage it, and discussions about those who have a sensitive skin barrier. It is the thème du jour.
This is a semi important theme that has been creeping up over the last two years. It is particularly important for the eyes - getting rid of fine lines around them.
This theme has shown steady growth over the last 5 years. Uneven skin tone is considered a ‘problem’ for many, and they’re looking for ways to even it up.
Steadily rising sub-theme - people who have sensitive, acne prone skin. The problems this brings in making their skin look a certain way is the subject of conversation.
Cross referencing themes of interest within creams and moisturisers.
We will explore EltaMD, mineral sunscreen, use Cerave, and La Posay.
EltaMD is a skincare brand that’s recently picked up a significant amount of traction. They specialise in sunscreen.
Mineral sunscreen is a common recommendation for people with sensitive skin. The only problem with it is the white cast/film it leaves behind. However, people are increasingly recommending tinted mineral sunscreen.
Cerave is the most commonly recommended/discussed brand in the context of skincare, and this has increased over the last 5 years. However, its prevalence has recently slightly flattened.
The brand La Roche Posay has been creeping up in prevalence, particularly their Anthelios product. This is a chemical sunscreen that is kind to sensitive skin.
Cross referencing themes of interest within oils and lotions.
We will explore body wash, body lotion, body butter, body smell, and bath body.
An important and, despite a recent dip, increasing sub-theme. Body wash discussions are complex but, generally, people discuss it in the context of their smell. Of course, there is also choices made that deliver to sensitive skin needs and there are certain brands that are strong; particularly Dove, Tree Hut, Soap and Glory, and Native Body Wash.
Body lotion is much the same as body wash (without the dip in prominence), but has a closer association with the bath. Scent is hugely important, and cocoa butter, vanilla, butter etc all feature.
An increasingly important theme, this is fairly self explanatory. Trader Joes, Coconut Body Butter and Tree Hut Body Butter feature regularly.
A relatively small but increasing sub-theme, this is about the smell that products leave on your body. ‘Amazing’ - that’s the adjective.
A small sub-theme but showing signs of growth, this refers mostly to ‘bath and body works’ - a retailer that sells soaps, lotions, fragrances, and candles.
Cross referencing themes of interest within tanning and foundation.
We will explore Isle Paradise, look natural, tanning drop, set spray, Charlotte Tilbury.
An important theme that has recently dropped off after a few years of growth, this refers to the brand known as Ilse of Paradise. In particular, it refers to their tanning drops and is revered for its natural look.
The goal of tanning or foundation is to get a natural look, and increasingly so. This theme is important and rising.
A relatively new but increasingly important theme is the use of tanning drops. While Isle of Paradise has dominated the market, there are other brands coming on to the market that are gaining traction, e.g. Bondi Sands.
An important theme, and increasingly so. This refers to ‘setting spray’, which our models abbreviate to set spray. People often have questions about using it with oily skin.
Charlotte Tilbury’s dominance continues to make itself apparent, in this area with their flawless filter setting spray.
Cross referencing themes of interest within smell.
We will explore vanilla scent, smell vanilla, de janeiro.
Vanilla scent has been steadily increasing over the last five years - that’s all there really is to this, as it comes up across multiple products and sub-categories.
This is obviously similar to ‘vanilla scent’ but we have explored as it has rocketed over the last year. The main difference here is the references to ‘smells like a vanilla cupcake’ and ‘get compliments’. Vanilla is huge.
This important theme that has had a recent bump in popularity refers to the brand Sol De Janeiro. They offer multiple products, but the recent bump is for their creams and body washes. They carry the brands signature scent of pistachio and salted caramel.
Cross referencing themes of interest within lips.
We will explore dry lip, nipple cream, laneige lip.
This is a consistent theme, with signs of slight increase - the main recommendation is to use lip balm, and there is obviously a strong association with Winter time.
This was a surprising theme within lips, but it is relatively consistent in its presence and in slight growth. it is a regular recommendation for dry lips - lanolin based lip balm. Specifically, Lansinoh nipple cream.
This is one of the most consistent themes, and it refers to the various products of a particular brand.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Scalp.
We will explore thick hair, wavy hair, and make hair.
Managing scalp dryness with thick hair is an increasing theme. The general recommendation is to use shea moisturising shampoo. With the increasing use of heat to add volume (in line with hair trends), people are finding their scalps are dry.
Similar to thick hair, this sub-theme has increased recently. The question/conversation essentially revolves around what shampoo and conditioner should be used for a dry scalp, if they have this type of hair.
An increasing sub-theme - this is people asking or discussing ways to make their hair a certain way.
Cross referencing themes of interest within purchase usage.
We will explore travel size, get sample.
This is people effectively recommending that they should get a travel size over full size, as a little goes a long way. It is not rising dramatically, but slightly. It is a prominent part of the conversation.
An important sub-theme but not in growth - it is related to the recommendation that people get a sample (mostly from Sephora) before they go buy something full size.
Cross referencing themes of interest within deodorant.
We will explore use deodorant, aluminum free, kill bacteria.
This is a big sub-theme but not really rising - it is reflective of the category entry points.
This is a big theme that has recently risen, but not dramatically. People have questions over whether the ‘natural deodorants’ work. Subsequently, they often discuss baking soda as a way to neutralise odor without the need for actual deodorant.
This is a new but increasing sub-theme - people discussing how they might go about killing the bacteria that causes the smell that requires deodorant.
Cross referencing themes of interest within purchase usage.
We will explore benzoyl peroxide and glycolic acid.
Benzoyl peroxide is relatively new on the scene, compared to some of the other acids. Benzoyl is better at treating serious skin outbreaks.
Glycolic acid has risen in popularity dramatically, particularly because of The Ordinary’s toning solution.
Style (sub-themes)
Within threads that pose the question or point of discussion about style, it tends to go one of twelve ways. This is a complex topic.
Summary
The biggest growth within style is within perfumes. Specifically, sweet gourmand. Vanilla, candy, salted caramel, etc. This has been steadily rising, but has exploded recently.
There is also increasing reference to individualised style. Do whatever makes you feel good, is the gist.
We also see an increase in reference to skin tone and skin undertone. We have some evidence to suggest that, for skin undertones in particular, people are reevaluating their palette choices. This is a relatively new concept.
Most people are now looking for a natural look, and their skincare style choices are reflecting that. They are exploring skin tinting, rejecting foundation, and focusing on taking time (e.g. complexity) to get ready only for special occasions.
Trends within style threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within style choices
We will explore feel good, make happy, people think.
This sub-theme, important and rising, is in reference to ‘why’ people engage with style exploration. Why they wear makeup, etc. They do it because it makes them feel good - feel good when you look good.
Another sub-theme that’s rising - people do it because it makes them happy. There is also increasing reference to doing whatever you want that makes you happy.
This sub-theme is distinct, but not rising. It effectively refers to either what people think, or who cares what people think. Combined with the other two areas of exploration, we thought it prudent to dig in to this slightly.
Cross referencing themes of interest within lip and eye products.
We will explore lip liner, tubing mascara, brow gel, and lip tint.
This is fairly straightforward, but increasingly people are discussing lip liner in combination with lipstick. particularly liquid lip liner.
Another important theme that is gaining traction - tubing mascara. This is a relatively new type of mascara that supposedly wraps each eyelash in a ‘tube’, providing better lift and less clumping.
A relatively new but increasingly important theme - particularly over the last 6 months. Like other lip and eye product discussion, it’s being discussed as a tool in their arsenal. Clear brow gel is the preferred product.
Lip tints have seen a resurgence in popularity over the last 12 months. They are more ‘natural’ looking than many alternatives. they smudge easily, and give a ‘lived in’ look.
Cross referencing themes of interest within perfumes.
We will explore perfume love and sweet scent.
We are interested in this term within the sub-theme as it shows what perfumes people are most loving. It is rising, but not massively so - it has had a couple of spikes.
The main component that stands out is reference to vanilla, gourmand, and sweet scent. We know that vanilla is on the rise, and it’s a part of gourmand. Most of Ariana Grande’s perfumes are Gourmand.
Sweet scent is an important and rising theme. People get compliments when they wear them. It’s mostly gourmand, with vanilla being the main theme.
Cross referencing themes of interest within foundation and concealer.
We will explore Este Lauder and skin tint.
Our methods are showing. We lemattise text, which is why it is este and not estee.
Double wear is the foundation of choice, but is in close competition with Laura Mercer’s products. It’s been increasing in prominence slightly over the last 5 years.
An increasingly important theme - this is people looking for skin tints, tinted moisturisers, and tinted creams.
They are lauded for their natural look and ability for full or light coverage. No use for imperfection coverage, but concealer helps with that.
Cross referencing themes of interest within eye makeup.
We will explore inner corner, make look, outer corner, hoode eye, lash look, and use dry.
This theme popped onto the scene about 4 years ago and has stayed relatively consistent since. In short, it references people exploring special consideration to the eye makeup choices used in the inner corner of the eye. The ‘dry skin’ component is a special consideration for this area of makeup.
An important theme, but not rising. We explore this because we want to know what they’re trying to ‘make it look like.’ The main objective appears to make it look natural.
The outer corner is about half as important as the inner corner in terms of volume of conversation. It differs most because the conversation is about using liner, which doesn’t feature as prominently for inner eye (which is mostly brush).
Again we see the effects of lemmatisation - hoode versus hooded.
This is quite an important sub-theme. What recommendations would one make for those that have ‘hooded’ eyes. Generally, the conversation is around eyeliner, the lash line, and using primer.
A sub-theme that has recently increased in importance is the desire to find ways to make lashes look natural. This would likely explain the rise of tubing mascara.
This is a sub-theme that has recently rocketed. It principally refers to what do you use for dry skin, or to dry hair.
Cross referencing themes of interest within time and occasions.
We will explore get ready and spend time.
This is an important theme - how long it takes to get ready. The most commonly cited length is one hour. They need time to get ready to a level that they’re comfortable with.
Another important them - generally what they spend time on, typically an hour. The importance of special occasions and spending time deciding on what products to buy are apparent.
Cross referencing themes of interest within palettes.
We will explore Charlotte Tilbury, eyeshadow palette, Pat McGrath, and look palette.
Charlotte Tilbury’s Pillow talk is crushing it in the market right now - that’s all there really is to this. It’s product range is the go-to palette for many at the moment.
This is an important theme that has grown in prominence over the last 5 years. It effectively represents people discussing the pallettes they use or want to try. Urban Decay’s naked, Makeup revolution, modern renaissance, Anastacia Hills, etc.
Pat McGrath is a brand whose popularity in discussion has started creeping up, particularly in comparison to Natasha Denona.
‘Look Palette’ is a sub-theme that has been creeping up recently. It refers to two things - palettes they ‘like the look of’ or ‘natural look(ing) palettes’.
Cross referencing themes of interest within colours.
We will explore skin tone, warm cool, hair colour, eye colour, and cool tone.
A very important theme, and one that has increased dramatically recently. This is all about matching skin tone with colours. Undertone is increasingly important, particularly yellow.
‘Warm or cool’ is recent and increasingly important sub-theme. It is part of skin undertones. A relatively new concept.
Conversations about hair colour - particularly in the context of skin tone - has been increasing recently. Likely a part of the skin undertone explosion.
Eye colour is an important sub-theme and has shown growth, in terms of a considering factor for makeup/palettes.
An increasingly important sub-theme - this refers to those with a cool undertone.
Procedural corrections (sub-themes)
Within threads that pose the question or point of discussion about procedural corrections, it tends to go one of six ways.
Summary
We have evidence to suggest that more and more ‘procedures’ are being undertaken at home, particularly laser hair removal.
However, they are increasingly discussing their ‘first session’ in the context of what to expect.
Teeth whitening is also increasing, as is reference to the ‘nail bed’.
Trends within procedural correction threads
Cross referencing themes of interest within experiences.
We will explore first time, first session, hair removal, and think worth.
This is the most important sub-theme within the topic of experiences. Generally, it’s people referring to the first time they did something. Typically, this is waxing. It hurts.
Hair removal has been steadily increasing over the last 3 years, and is principally in reference to laser hair removal.
‘Think worth’ is a small but important, and increasingly rising sub-theme. It refers to people stating that they ‘think it’s worth it’, and the main thing they’re referring to is laser hair removal.
Cross referencing themes of interest within laser hair removal
We will explore home laser, home IPL, and dark hair.
This is an increasingly important sub-theme - people looking to do laser hair removal at home.
This theme goes hand in hand with the general rise of laser hair removal and home laser hair removal - the main product used is IPL (Intense Pulsed Light)
Removal of dark hairs is not increasing, but is a very important theme. We explored to discover any underlying points of interest, and the general theme seems to be for people with pale skin wanting to remove dark hairs.
Cross referencing themes of interest within teeth.
We will explore use whitening, electric toothbrush, drink coffee.
This is an increasingly important theme, people looking to whiten their teeth. Generally the recommendation is to use whitening toothpaste of crest strips.
Another increasingly important sub-theme - the recommendation to use an electric toothbrush. It’s a fairly simple subject.
An increasingly important theme - the staining that occurs from drinking coffee or tea. The general recommendations are to reduce, stop, or drink it through a straw.
Cross referencing themes of interest within nails.
We will explore nail bed, polish last, nail glue, base coat, and gel polish.
A small but recently very important sub-theme - people are looking for ways to grow or repair their nail beds. This is also an important conversation in the context of acrylic nails.
A consistent and increasingly important theme - people are looking for regular, long lasting and no chip nail polishes.
This small sub-theme has rocketed recently, at the same time as ‘nail bed’. This is likely a case of people talking about using the right nail glue for acrylic nails. The most common referenced glue product/brand is Kiss.
References to base coats are always important, but have been steadily increasing. In particular, references to gel base coats are on the rise.
Gel polish’ popularity has diminished, but it has seen a large resurgence over the last 18 months. Most of the rise has come from discussions about its use as a top coat. Gel polish is more hassle to apply, but is longer lasting and more chip resistant.
Cross referencing themes of interest within Beauty Treatments
We will explore lip filler and plastic surgery.
References to lip filler have been increasing, and are generally discussed in conjuntion with other procedures. Typically, hair removal, chemical peels, and botox.
Braun Silk, which has been incressing, is a reference to a specific product - the Braun silk Expert range. These are epilators.
References to this important theme have shown some increase, and generally its in the context of pros and cons. The most common context is breast implants.
Cross referencing themes of interest within waxing.
We will explore use cream and get wax.
When people are talking about waxing, often they talk about the negative outcomes for those with sensitive skin. Subsequently, one of the common and increasing recommendations is to use cream to help negate negative effects.
‘Get Wax’ is a large and often-present sub-theme - it’s a recommendation of what to get. Typically, wax strips, or wax cream or hot wax.